Newcastle’s Home Fortress
Newcastle enjoyed a formidable home record last season, winning 12 of their 19 league matches at St James’ Park. Southampton, by contrast, struggled on the road towards the end of their Championship campaign, winning only two of their final seven away games. Both teams have found the net in six of the last seven meetings between these sides, suggesting we could be in for another competitive clash.
Home Comforts to Boost Magpies
Newcastle have made St James’ Park a fortress, losing just twice in their 19 home league fixtures during the 2022-23 season. They carried that momentum into the following season, winning 12 of their 19 home games. As they prepare to host newly-promoted Southampton on the opening weekend, the Magpies will be keen to take advantage of their familiar surroundings.
With no European commitments this season, Newcastle will be focused on securing a top-four finish, aiming for Champions League qualification. Southampton, on the other hand, will be primarily concerned with survival in the Premier League after their promotion.
Eddie Howe’s men lost only three home matches last season, and those were against formidable opponents: Liverpool, Manchester City, and Nottingham Forest. This highlights the challenge Southampton will face in their return to the top flight.
Although Newcastle are expected to secure a win, their defensive frailties—exacerbated by recurring injuries—could give Southampton hope of finding the back of the net. The Magpies conceded 22 goals in 19 home league matches last season, keeping just two clean sheets in their final ten outings at St James’ Park. Both teams scored in each of Newcastle’s final five Premier League fixtures, indicating that Southampton could well get on the scoresheet.
Despite their shaky defence, Newcastle should still have enough firepower to secure a win. Southampton, buoyed by their promotion, will fancy their chances of scoring, but a 3-1 victory for Newcastle seems the most likely outcome.
Streaky Saints Have Work to Do
While Southampton might manage a goal, avoiding defeat will be a tall order. The Saints won just two of their final seven away matches in the Championship last season, and although they finished fourth in the league, their defensive record left much to be desired. Conceding 63 goals in 46 games was the third-worst record in the top half of the Championship.
Russell Martin’s possession-based style has its merits, but it could leave them vulnerable against superior Premier League opposition. Southampton suffered heavy defeats last season, including 5-0 losses away at Sunderland and Leicester, and a 3-0 loss at Ipswich.
Facing players like Alexander Isak, who was the Premier League’s third-highest scorer last season with 21 goals, and Anthony Gordon, could spell trouble for the Saints.
Newcastle are likely to kick off their campaign with a home win, but Southampton could still manage a consolation goal, making a 3-1 scoreline a sensible prediction.
Betting Tip – BTTS yes – 4/6
