Football Betting · Champions League

Champions League Matchday 1: Real Madrid’s Early Backing, Arsenal in Naples and Where We See Value

Ten fixtures across three nights, all five Premier League clubs in action, and an outright market that’s already moved more than the group draw alone would suggest. Here’s our read on Matchday 1, plus two free extras worth a couple of minutes of your time this week.

The Three Fixtures Worth Watching Closest

Real Madrid v Inter Milan on Tuesday is the obvious one — it’s Jose Mourinho’s first Champions League night back in the home dugout since his last spell at the Bernabeu ended, and the market has already reacted to it more than to anything else on the schedule this week. Liverpool’s trip to face Atletico Madrid on Wednesday is the sterner test of the two English away days, coming as it does in the early days of Andoni Iraola’s rebuild post-Slot. And Arsenal’s visit to Napoli, also Wednesday, sends the beaten finalists from May into a stadium that will fancy its chances of an upset — Mikel Arteta’s side go in as favourites, but a support that loud rarely makes for a formality.

Full Matchday 1 Schedule

Odds correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation — always check the current price before placing a bet. Full markets available with bet365’s Champions League hub.

The Outright Market: Where the Early Value Sits

bet365’s Steve Freeth put the draw-reaction market in context for us this week:

“The UEFA Champions League is back with PSG aiming to win the famous trophy for a third successive season. Jose Mourinho is back at Real Madrid and it’s the 15-time winners that have attracted the most support so far with 26.3% of global slips being for the 13/2 Bernabeu outfit, in front of 6/1 Barcelona who take 21.1%. 5/1 favourites PSG sit just behind in third with 20.1% followed by Harry Kane’s 6/1 shots Bayern Munich with a 13.5% share. 6/1 Arsenal are the best of the English with 8.7%, but there’s not much love for 9/1 Manchester City who take less than 2% — a side that were 2/1 favourites just 2 years ago.”

— Steve Freeth, bet365

Read plainly, that’s a market that has already made its mind up about Real Madrid’s draw being kinder than Manchester City’s, well before either side has played a competitive minute. Whether that gap is justified by the groups themselves or is simply reputational — Mourinho’s return generating headlines, City’s slow league form colouring perception — is exactly the kind of question worth revisiting once a couple of matchdays are actually in the book.

Also available: To Reach the Final (PSG, Arsenal and Barcelona share the shortest price at 10/3) and Nationality of Winner (England lead at 6/4, unsurprising with five clubs still involved).

Top Goalscorer: The Market vs the Money

The scorer market is the one place this week where the price and the public money line up almost exactly. Kylian Mbappe carries 54% of global scorer slips at 7/2, more than double Harry Kane’s 26% share at 7/1 — and both are considerably ahead of the rest of the field.

Full Top Goalscorer market, including Dembele, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr and Isak, available with bet365.

Two Free Extras Worth Grabbing This Week

bet365’s UEFA Champions League Ticket Giveaway ballot is running again, with the current window open for Match Week 2 — entry takes a minute and it’s worth doing before the window closes rather than after.

Separately, if you fancy running a private table alongside the actual competition, bet365’s free-to-play Tournament Challenge is back too. Once you’ve entered your Matchday picks, the ‘Leagues’ tab lets you create a league, name it, and share the ID with friends so you can track everyone’s picks against each other — no stake involved, just a leaderboard to argue about.

Betting Sensibly on Matchday 1

Ten fixtures over three nights is a lot of temptation to try to cover in one go. Whatever you back this week, it’s worth deciding your stake in advance and treating the outright market and the individual match odds as two separate decisions rather than one big combined punt. Deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion tools are all available at responsiblegambling.bet365.com if you want to set boundaries before kick-off.

New to bet365? Open a bet365 account and view the full Champions League Matchday 1 markets.

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