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Which Premier League Markets Are Bet365 Customers Actually Backing for 2026/27?
Outright winner, top four, relegation, Golden Boot, and the increasingly popular handicap market — we break down where the early-season money is going, and why the handicap table tells a very different story to the title odds.
What Is the Premier League Handicap Market, and Why Do Long Shots Keep Winning It?
Before looking at where the money’s going on the more familiar markets, it’s worth understanding the one that consistently produces the most unpredictable winners: the handicap market. Each club is assigned a points total at the start of the season, effectively a head start. That handicap is added to the club’s actual points total at the end of the campaign, and whoever finishes with the highest combined figure wins — provided they finish above every other side once all handicaps are applied.
“Forget world-class players, wage bills and profit and sustainability, history has shown us that any of the 20 clubs can win the Premier League handicap, which is why it’s so popular. Sunderland were the latest side to win with a significant head start, following in the footsteps of Nottingham Forest +47, Aston Villa +32, Brentford +46, West Ham +44 and Sheffield United +52 over the last seven years, with Liverpool +7 sandwiched in between them in 2022 and Manchester City being the last side to win off scratch in 2018. Furthermore, three of the top four teams in the table last season were given starts of 38 or more (Brentford +38, Leeds +43) while Manchester United were given +21. Arsenal start on zero this season with Manchester City and Liverpool given starts of +3 and +7 respectively. Last season’s big underachievers were actually Wolverhampton Wanderers who, despite being given 39 points, still finished bottom, one point behind Arne Slot’s Liverpool.”— Steve Freeth, bet365
Here’s how the model played out at the end of last season — note how far down the final league table the actual winner (Sunderland) finished before their +52 head start was applied:
| Team | Handicap | Points | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | +52 | 54 | 106 |
| Manchester United | +21 | 71 | 92 |
| Brentford | +38 | 53 | 91 |
| Leeds United | +43 | 47 | 90 |
| Bournemouth | +32 | 57 | 89 |
| Arsenal | +3 | 85 | 88 |
| Aston Villa | +22 | 65 | 87 |
| Fulham | +33 | 52 | 85 |
| Everton | +33 | 49 | 82 |
| Manchester City | +3 | 78 | 81 |
| Brighton | +27 | 53 | 80 |
| Crystal Palace | +33 | 45 | 78 |
| Nottingham Forest | +32 | 44 | 76 |
| West Ham United | +35 | 39 | 74 |
| Burnley | +51 | 22 | 73 |
| Chelsea | +12 | 52 | 64 |
| Newcastle United | +15 | 49 | 64 |
| Tottenham | +22 | 41 | 63 |
| Liverpool | 0 | 60 | 60 |
| Wolves | +39 | 20 | 59 |
Arsenal and Manchester City carry the shortest handicaps of the traditional top six (+3 apiece), which tells you the market rates them as genuine title contenders again this season. But it’s the mid-table sides given starts of 30+ who are historically where this market gets won — worth weighing against the outright favourites below rather than instead of them.
See here for the latest Premier League handicap news.
Who’s Favourite to Win the League Outright?
Over 50,000 wagers have now been taken on the Premier League Outright market, and more than a third of them — 34.4% — have been placed on Arsenal.
bet365’s Steve Freeth commented: “Arsenal have finally ended years of being second best by securing the Premier League trophy. Our customers clearly believe that, much like London buses, you wait ages for one only for a second to follow; the Gunners are currently the most backed selection in the outright market.”
| Team | % of Slips | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 34.4% | 6/4 |
| Man City | 23.4% | 11/4 |
| Man United | 13.8% | 6/1 |
| Liverpool | 8.9% | 5/1 |
| Chelsea | 8.6% | 9/1 |
| Tottenham | 4.3% | 20/1 |
See here for the latest Premier League outright insights and news.
Can Chelsea Break Into the Top Four Under Xabi Alonso?
The battle for Champions League qualification looks as competitive as ever, and the market data suggests punters expect a change at the top: over 1,700 of the 8,631 bets placed on the top four market have gone on Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea — more than any other club.
| Team | % of Slips | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 20.32% | 10/11 |
| Man United | 18.65% | 4/7 |
| Man City | 14.61% | 2/7 |
| Arsenal | 12.39% | 1/8 |
| Tottenham | 10.89% | 3/1 |
| Liverpool | 10.13% | 4/9 |
See here for the latest Premier League outright insights and news.
Will Haaland Add a Fourth Golden Boot in Five Seasons?
Erling Haaland has won the Golden Boot in three of his four seasons at Manchester City, and the betting reflects that dominance clearly: 61.83% of all top goalscorer bets have been placed on the Norwegian.
| Player | % of Slips | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 61.83% | 4/6 |
| Alexander Isak | 6.00% | 9/1 |
| Benjamin Sesko | 4.25% | 20/1 |
| Joao Pedro | 4.20% | 16/1 |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 3.96% | 20/1 |
| Cole Palmer | 3.85% | 40/1 |
Is Hull City Already Written Off on Their Return?
Promoted sides often struggle to establish themselves, and the market thinks Hull City’s stay will be brief: they’re priced at 1/4 to go straight back down and account for 28.29% of all relegation market bets.
| Team | % of Slips | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 28.29% | 1/4 |
| Ipswich Town | 15.81% | 4/6 |
| Newcastle United | 13.13% | 20/1 |
| Man City | 10.87% | 12/1 |
| Sunderland | 5.71% | 11/4 |
| Coventry City | 5.29% | 8/13 |
Reading the Market
The outright and top-four markets point to a familiar top six jostling for position, but the handicap data is the more interesting story this season — it’s the market where last year’s mid-table sides, not this year’s favourites, have historically cashed in.
Transfer Specials Worth Watching
The window is still open, and here’s where the market currently sits on some of the summer’s most talked-about moves (odds obtained 08:30, 28/07/2026):
- Adam Wharton (club on 01/09/2026) — Crystal Palace 4/6, Chelsea 7/2, Liverpool 6/1, Man City 14/1, Man United 14/1
- Ayyoub Bouaddi (club on 01/09/2026) — Man City 1/4, Lille 4/1, Arsenal 10/1, Real Madrid 12/1, Man United 14/1
- Darwin Nunez (club on 01/09/2026) — Any MLS Team 5/4, Besiktas 4/1, Galatasaray 8/1, Fenerbahce 10/1, Liverpool 10/1
- Dusan Vlahovic (club on 01/09/2026) — Juventus 5/6, Napoli 5/1, Besiktas 11/2, Barcelona 9/1, Man United 12/1
- Junior Kroupi (club on 01/09/2026) — Bournemouth 10/11, Barcelona 9/4, Man City 13/2, Tottenham 7/1, PSG 8/1
- Gabriel Jesus (club on 01/09/2026) — Arsenal 8/11, AC Milan 5/1, Palmeiras 8/1, Fenerbahce 10/1, Besiktas 12/1
- Gabriel Martinelli (club on 01/09/2026) — Arsenal 4/6, Atletico Madrid 7/2, Juventus 7/1, Roma 9/1, Any Saudi Arabian Team 10/1
- Jadon Sancho (club on 01/09/2026) — Any Qatari Team 2/1, Borussia Dortmund 3/1, Atletico Madrid 6/1, Any Saudi Arabian Team 8/1, Roma 10/1
- Julian Alvarez (club on 01/09/2026) — Atletico Madrid 1/3, Barcelona 3/1, Arsenal 5/1, PSG 16/1, Real Madrid 40/1
- Marcus Rashford (club on 01/09/2026) — Man United 1/2, Aston Villa 5/1, Chelsea 5/1, Tottenham 8/1, Arsenal 9/1
- Rafael Leao (club on 01/09/2026) — Fenerbahce 4/6, Galatasaray 7/2, AC Milan 7/1, Any Saudi Arabian Team 14/1, Man United 14/1
- Rodri (club on 01/09/2026) — Real Madrid 2/7, Man City 5/2, Barcelona 12/1, PSG 16/1, Atletico Madrid 80/1
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