Ascot 3:05 – Farhh To Shy is available at 20/1, with 0.5pt each way bet at Bet365, offering 6 places. The decision to replace Tom Queally with Jamie Spencer on this horse may seem odd, but considering her late-racing style, Spencer seems to be a fitting substitute.
While there are horses that may be considered better handicapped than Farhh To Shy, such as the favored horse trained by Joseph O’Brien, I believe Farhh To Shy isn’t receiving the attention she deserves for this race. This might be due to the trainer and the quality of opponents she has previously faced. However, her last race at this track was highly promising. She performed effortlessly, showing no signs of inexperience despite it being one of her early mile races. Even though she didn’t win by a significant margin, it may just be attributed to her unique racing style. Hence, with Spencer’s late-delivery strategy, she could excel.
From stall 22, Spencer will be compelled to wait and watch the race progress. Hopefully, he will be able to settle her and gradually move into a competitive position from the outside, a tactic that has proven successful in this race over the years. Although her rating rose after her recent win, she is still well-placed, having previously achieved a victory at a rating just one point higher than her current one. She participated in this race last year with a rating of 95, and while she didn’t manage to secure a win, she performed impressively, which bodes well for her current chances.
There’s a certain level of risk in selecting a horse with zero turf victories but a decent record of five wins and three places from eight All-Weather (AW) starts. Despite this, I believe she’s versatile enough to claim a turf victory. She has shown solid performances on turf, even though they were in lower tier races. Adverse circumstances have often hindered her progress, but she still manages to finish well. Ascot is known for favoring AW horses due to its sand-based substructure, which could work to Queen Aminatu’s advantage, especially on the straight track.
She has achieved victories on AW courses with bends, including a Listed win last October, suggesting her capability. She often encounters obstacles in her races, notably at Lingfield, where she has to take the widest track, leading to late peaks in her performance, such as in the Group 3 behind Sacred. The straight track at Ascot should hopefully enable her to hit her peak stride without encountering traffic, showcasing her lethal speed.
Her preferred ground conditions are uncertain as she has performed well on good to soft, but clearly found the Curragh too soft. Today’s ground conditions should be just right for her, lying between the two. While the 14/1 odds I initially hoped for are no longer available due to some money going her way, I still believe she’s worth a small each-way bet. Given that this race lacks any dominant contenders, she certainly has a shot.