RBC Canadian Open 2026
From Muirfield Village last week to the Land of Maple this week — we are heading north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open, the final tune-up before the US Open at Shinnecock Hills. TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course hosts for the second consecutive year, so we now have some data to work with — and last year’s result told us everything we need to know about how to approach this event.
At 7,389 yards, par-70, the course rewards the bombers — six par-4s stretch beyond 480 yards, and with generous fairways and relatively sparse rough, the advantage lies with players who can take shorter clubs into these demanding greens. Shots gained off the tee is a genuine edge. But the real separator? Approach play. With 48 bunkers placed aggressively around the greens and several long-iron approach shots throughout the round, the premium is firmly on ball-striking from distance.
Scrambling and short game around the greens? Less critical than at most venues. This week’s profile is bomber who can hit irons — and we have exactly the squad for it.
Rory McIlroy misses the Canadian Open for the first time since 2018, opening up the market considerably. The field is strong — Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Rose, Morikawa, Koepka — but with no single dominant force, the each-way landscape is exactly where we want it. Bombers are back in fashion. SG: Approach from long range is the defining stat. We are skipping the short-priced favourites and targeting value from 40/1 out.
Where do you even start with Aaron Rai right now? The man is in the form of his life. A T13, T3 and T14 record in his previous Canadian Open appearances is the foundation — but it is what he has done in the past two months that makes this selection irresistible. His USPGA Championship victory was followed by a more than respectable top-20 at a punishing Memorial last week. He is playing with the kind of controlled confidence that only major winners carry into events.
Yes, he is one of the shorter hitters on tour — but he more than compensates with world-class approach play. He is currently ranked inside the top 10 on tour for SG: Approach, which at TPC Toronto is arguably the most important metric of the week. He knows this course, he knows how to win, and at 40/1 with bet365 paying 8 places, this is our most heavily-staked selection without hesitation.
Bomber number one. The defending champion. Fox birdied the 72nd hole last year to force a playoff, then produced what he called the shot of his life — a 3-wood to seven feet on the fourth extra hole — to clinch the title over Sam Burns. He knows this course better than almost anyone in the field, and he returns in excellent form having won the Myrtle Beach Classic earlier in the season.
In his two appearances at TPC Toronto, Fox has a win and a runner-up — a record that would be the envy of every player teeing it up this week. He hits it a long way, his iron play is underrated, and he simply knows how to get it done at this venue. The 50/1 price is extraordinarily generous for a man who has never finished outside the top two here. Bomber. Champion. Value.
Bomber number two — and potentially the longest hitter in the entire field. The young South African is going to cause some serious damage on a PGA Tour course sooner rather than later, and TPC Toronto sets up beautifully for his game. The wide fairways remove any concern about his occasional waywardness off the tee, and when the big dog is running on a 7,400-yard par-70, there are not many that can live with him.
His approach statistics from long range rank inside the top 10 this week — which, at a course that demands mid-to-long iron approaches repeatedly throughout the round, puts him in elite company on the key metric. He is only young, still learning, but each week he competes he is adding experience. A first PGA Tour win is coming — and at 60/1, why not this week at a venue that plays straight into his hands?
The speculative punt — but far from a blind one. Suber lit up the leaderboard last year at this very venue, finishing T18 at 12 under par, confirming he handles TPC Toronto just fine. He is also ranked inside the top 10 on tour for SG: Approach right now, which is striking given his price. If the stats are real and the course suits — and both appear to be true — then 140/1 is a significant mispricing.
He has been steadily building his profile across the past year, and his round of 61 at the CJ Cup earlier in the season showed the ceiling is there when everything clicks. This is a small-stakes, speculative punt on a player who has already shown he can play well at this venue and whose current form metrics align with what is required this week. At 140/1 with 8 places, the place return alone is compelling.
| Player | Price | Bet Type | Places | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rai | 40/1 | Each Way | Top 8 | 2 pts EW |
| Ryan Fox | 50/1 | Each Way | Top 8 | 1.5 pts EW |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 60/1 | Each Way | Top 8 | 1 pt EW |
| Jackson Suber | 140/1 | Each Way | Top 8 | 0.5 pt EW |
All prices quoted at time of writing via bet365. Please check current market prices before placing any bets. Top 8 each way terms apply — verify terms with your bookmaker before placing.
The profile this week is clear: bombers who can hit mid-to-long irons. TPC Toronto’s par-70 demands it, and the stats back up every selection in this week’s squad. With Rory McIlroy absent and no single runaway favourite, the each-way market is as open as it has been all season.
Aaron Rai is the anchor bet — a major champion in superb form with a remarkable course record and elite approach stats. Ryan Fox is the defending champion at a price that should frankly be shorter; his W/T2 record at TPC Toronto is extraordinary. Aldrich Potgieter is a ticking time bomb at a course perfectly designed to unlock everything frightening about his game. And Jackson Suber gives us the speculative end — a player who has already shown he can go low here and whose approach metrics are quietly elite.
Following back-to-back winning weeks — Reitan at 80/1 and Fox last year — the squad continues to do its talking. Same mantra: each-way value, with a win being the enormous bonus. Go and get involved.
- 8 places each way on the RBC Canadian Open
- Competitive outright and each way golf markets
- In-play betting available throughout the tournament
- Live streaming and same game multiples
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