Poland have consistently secured victories at home, often with clean sheets, winning four of their last six matches by margins of either 1-0 or 2-0. Estonia’s defence has been breached for exactly two goals in four of their last five international fixtures. In recent competitive matches, excluding friendlies, Estonia hasn’t found the back of the net in their last six outings. Poland poised to dispatch Estonia with ease Come Thursday in Warsaw, Poland looks set to breeze past Estonia, the underdogs of the Euro 2024 play-off semi-finals.
Under the stewardship of Michal Probierz, Poland clinched third in Group E, trailing behind Albania and Czechia, primarily due to their away performances. However, their formidable home record should see them overpower Estonia, who somewhat fortuitously secured their play-off spot from UEFA Nations League D.
While Thomas Haberli’s side enjoyed success in their Nations League group, their limitations were exposed in the Euro 2024 qualifiers.
Estonia strengthens defensively Finishing at the bottom of Group F with just a single point and a -20 goal difference from matches against Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and Azerbaijan highlighted Estonia’s struggles. Only a few nations scored less and conceded more in the qualifiers.
Although Poland’s approach is less aggressive than Sweden’s—who handed Estonia a 5-0 defeat in Tallinn and a 2-0 loss at home—the quality between the two teams is comparable. Even with Robert Lewandowski leading the line, suggesting a class apart from Estonia’s Viktor Gyokeres.
Poland is favoured to win comfortably, though the final score might not exceed a 2-0 margin. Estonia improved defensively towards the late stages of 2023, limiting Azerbaijan, Austria, and Sweden to no more than two goals. Meanwhile, Poland hasn’t scored three or more goals in a match since a 4-1 triumph over Andorra over two years ago.
