Your Complete Guide to the Champions League Semi-Finals
Four teams remain in the hunt for European football’s ultimate prize. PSG host Bayern on Tuesday and Atlético face Arsenal on Wednesday in two first legs that could define the path to Budapest. Here’s everything you need to know.
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The Tie Nobody Wanted to Miss
Defending champions against a Bayern side who ended Real Madrid’s European reign in the most dramatic fashion. With 38 goals each in Europe this season, this is the most attacking semi-final in recent Champions League memory.
Paris Saint-Germain are the reigning European champions — winners of last season’s final 5-0 against Inter Milan, the largest margin in a Champions League final in the competition’s history. Under Luis Enrique they’ve built something coherent and formidable: a squad defined by collective intelligence and relentless pressing, rather than the superstar dependence of their earlier years.
Bayern München arrive carrying extraordinary momentum. They beat Real Madrid 6-4 on aggregate in the quarter-finals — a tie that included a stunning three-goal comeback after the 80th minute in the second leg. Vincent Kompany’s side have looked irresistible when firing, and with Harry Kane in the form of his career, they’re genuine favourites to go all the way.
The statistical picture shows two teams of near-identical quality. Both have scored 38 Champions League goals this season — the highest tally of any remaining side. Both average over 58% possession. Both have conceded fewer than 18 goals in Europe. The margins in this tie will be small, and the moments of individual quality will likely decide it.
For PSG, the psychological challenge is their poor recent record against Bayern — five consecutive Champions League defeats to the Bavarians, including a 2-1 loss at the Parc des Princes in this season’s league phase. Enrique’s response is to cite the Club World Cup quarter-final win over Bayern in July 2025 as proof the tide can shift. The front three of Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé and Barcola is capable of unlocking any defence in the world on their day.
The Kompany Factor
Vincent Kompany is suspended from the Bayern touchline for the first leg, having collected his third booking against Real Madrid. His ability to make sharp tactical adjustments mid-game has been central to Bayern’s knockout run. This is a genuine handicap for the Bavarians heading into Paris.
For Bayern, Harry Kane’s run of form makes him arguably the most dangerous striker left in the tournament — 12 Champions League goals this season, scored in his last five consecutive UCL games. Jamal Musiala provides the creative movement around him. The midfield battle between Kimmich and Pavlović against Neves and Zaïre-Emery will shape the tempo and rhythm of the game.
This is a tie that rewards watching closely rather than predicting confidently. Both teams have the quality to take the first leg. PSG’s home advantage and Kompany’s absence from the Bayern bench feel like the decisive factors — but Bayern have shown all season that they do not accept defeat until the final whistle.
Unbeaten Meets Unbothered
Arsenal haven’t lost in Europe all season. Atlético Madrid have spent fifteen years specialising in eliminating sides who haven’t lost in Europe all season. Something has to give at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Arsenal’s Champions League record this season is outstanding — ten wins and two draws from twelve matches, without a single defeat. They’ve lost just twice in their last twenty-two European games across all competitions. Their defensive record (five goals conceded in twelve UCL matches) is among the finest in the history of the competition at this stage. Mikel Arteta has built the most complete squad in European football right now.
And yet: Atlético Madrid. Diego Simeone is in his 13th season at the club and has guided them to two La Liga titles, two Europa League trophies and two Champions League finals. His teams do not concede knockout ties easily. They reached the semi-finals for the first time since 2016/17 by dismantling Club Brugge, Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona in successive rounds — each elimination requiring a different form of tactical and mental resilience.
The October league phase result — Arsenal 4-0 Atlético at the Emirates, with a Gyökeres brace and goals from Gabriel and Martinelli — is the statistical starting point for analysis. But Atlético responded to that defeat by winning their next three Champions League games. Their route to the semis via a tense quarter-final against Barcelona — where they needed a Lookman goal and some resolute defending to progress — shows a side at their most dangerous when written off.
Saka: Arsenal’s Most Important Team News
Bukayo Saka is carrying a fitness concern heading into Wednesday’s first leg. He is Arsenal’s most important creative player and the one opposition sides fear most. Without him, Arsenal’s attack is significantly less dynamic and their chances of scoring away from home are meaningfully reduced.
Arsenal’s recent form carries a note of concern: in five matches across all competitions, they’ve scored just three goals and been outscored in open play. Viktor Gyökeres — the striker signed to provide the cutting edge — has averaged just 2.1 shots per 90 minutes recently. The underlying xG data remains respectable, but Arsenal need their attackers to convert chances against a Simeone side that will limit opportunities ruthlessly.
Julián Álvarez is Atlético’s central threat — a relentless, versatile forward with 12 UCL goals and 88 Fantasy points this season. His ability to run in behind Arsenal’s high defensive line is the primary tactical route Simeone will look to exploit. Antoine Griezmann’s intelligent movement between the lines provides the secondary threat that makes Atleti’s attack genuinely difficult to contain across a full game.
William Saliba and Gabriel remain arguably Europe’s finest centre-back pairing and Arsenal’s defensive structure has been near-perfect for most of this campaign. If they can replicate that quality at the Metropolitano and find a goal on the road, the second leg at the Emirates — where Arsenal have been outstanding in Europe all season — becomes a historic opportunity. Two years ago: quarter-finals. Last year: semi-finals. This year, the final.
Home advantage and Kompany’s touchline ban tip the balance for the holders. A tight, high-quality game decided by Kvaratskhelia’s creativity. Bayern remain very much in the tie for the return in Munich.
Simeone’s side frustrate Arsenal and hit on the counter through Álvarez. Arsenal’s defensive quality earns a crucial away goal. The tie goes to the Emirates perfectly balanced.