Can Wissa Shock England, or Will Kane Write History?

England are heavy, heavy favourites to progress. The 2/7 price reflects a squad that won every World Cup qualifier without conceding once, then arrived in the United States and put Croatia to the sword 4-2. Thomas Tuchel has a settled system, a fit Harry Kane with three tournament goals, and Jude Bellingham operating at peak efficiency from deep. On paper, this is a mismatch.

The hesitation comes in England’s consistency. Their goalless draw against Ghana — 78.9% possession, zero goals — showed that Tuchel’s side can be nullified when an opponent sits deep and denies space between the lines. DR Congo’s best result at this tournament came against Portugal, where they held the European giants to a 1-1 draw by executing exactly that blueprint. Sébastien Desabre has the tactical intelligence to make England work for this.

Harry Kane is on the verge of a landmark. Three World Cup goals in the group stage have already made him England’s all-time top scorer at the tournament — and one more against DR Congo would draw him level with Geoff Hurst’s knockout-stage record of four. Gary Lineker’s overall record of six remains the target, but Kane’s trajectory through this tournament suggests he will not stop at three.

Opta’s supercomputer gives England a 73.9% win probability based on 25,000 pre-match simulations. Elliot Anderson has been the unsung hero of England’s midfield, leading all Three Lions players for line-breaking passes, possession won, and duels won at the tournament. If Anderson and Rice dominate the central battle, DR Congo’s counter-attacking threat is neutralised before Wissa can threaten.