Can Fabio Wardley Turn the Tables? What the Odds Say About Dubois v Wardley II
Daniel Dubois defends the WBO World Heavyweight Title against the man he took it from, at The O2 on Saturday night. We’ve turned bet365’s prices into implied probabilities to see how the market expects the rematch to play out — and how long it thinks it will last.
Our Angle
The market makes Dubois roughly a 78% chance to keep his belt, but only a 25% chance that anyone hears the final bell. Its Dubois round-group prices peak in rounds 7–9, not early. Our read: bet365 expects a repeat of the first fight’s shape — a hard, attritional night that ends in a stoppage, rather than a quick blowout either way.
Fight night — Saturday 17 October, The O2 Arena, London
Main event ring walk — Approx. 22:30 BST, subject to undercard
How to watch — DAZN pay-per-view
On the line — WBO World Heavyweight Title
Fight one — Dubois won by 11th-round stoppage after two knockdowns, Co-op Live, Manchester
Match odds — Dubois 2/7, Wardley 5/2, Draw 20/1
What Happened the First Time?
In May, Wardley went into the first fight as the WBO champion and unbeaten as a professional. He put Dubois on the canvas twice early on — and for a fighter whose last outing had ended in a knockout defeat to Oleksandr Usyk, that could have been the end of the story. Instead, Dubois got up, kept working, and stopped Wardley in the 11th round in front of more than 18,000 fans at Co-op Live to take the title and hand the Ipswich man his first professional loss.
That combination is what makes the rematch so interesting to price. Wardley showed he can hurt Dubois; Dubois showed he can absorb it and finish strongly. Wardley triggered the rematch clause, and the second instalment moves to The O2 in London.
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How Do the Prices Translate Into Probabilities?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds and you get the chance a bookmaker is assigning to each outcome. Add the outcomes in a market together and the total comes to more than 100% — that excess is the bookmaker’s margin, which is worth keeping in mind whenever you weigh up a price.
Method of victory
| Outcome | Dubois | Wardley |
|---|---|---|
| To win the fight | 2/7 (78%) | 5/2 (29%) |
| By KO, TKO or DQ | 8/15 (65%) | 7/2 (22%) |
| By Decision or Technical Decision | 9/2 (18%) | 18/1 (5%) |
| Draw or Technical Draw | 20/1 (5%) | |
Implied probabilities rounded, bookmaker margin not removed.
Why Is Wardley’s Path Almost All Stoppage?
Look at how Wardley’s 29% is split. Around 22 percentage points sit on him winning inside the distance at 7/2, with only about 5 on the scorecards at 18/1. That’s the market reflecting the first fight: Wardley’s power is a real threat, but outpointing Dubois over twelve rounds is seen as a much longer shot. There’s also a 4/1 price on Wardley putting Dubois down twice again — about a 20% read on history repeating in that particular respect.
Dubois’ profile is more balanced. His 8/15 stoppage price implies around 65%, against 18% for a points win at 9/2. A repeat of the exact ending — Dubois in round 11 — is 16/1, while either fighter to win in rounds 10–12 is 5/1.
When Does the Market Think It Ends?
| Rounds | Dubois | Wardley |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 15/2 (12%) | 14/1 (7%) |
| 4–6 | 15/4 (21%) | 11/1 (8%) |
| 7–9 | 10/3 (23%) | 14/1 (7%) |
| 10–12 | 11/2 (15%) | 28/1 (3%) |
| Total rounds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 2/11 (85%) | 7/2 (22%) |
| 5.5 | 4/9 (69%) | 13/8 (38%) |
| 7.5 | 10/11 (52%) | 4/5 (56%) |
| 9.5 | 7/4 (36%) | 2/5 (71%) |
| Goes the distance | Yes 3/1 (25%) | No 2/9 (82%) |
Implied probabilities rounded, bookmaker margin not removed. Odds correct at the time of writing and subject to fluctuation — always check the current price before placing a bet. Full markets available on bet365’s Boxing hub.
The total-rounds line sits at roughly 7.5, where Over (10/11) and Under (4/5) are close to evens. Put that next to the round groups and a picture emerges: rounds 4–9 carry most of Dubois’ stoppage probability, with the early rounds the least likely window for him. For Wardley, the early and middle rounds are where the market gives him most of his chance — the same part of the fight where he did his damage first time around.
Our Selections
Dubois by KO, TKO or DQ — 8/15. He finished the first fight the stronger man, and the market agrees this is the most likely way it ends. Dubois to win in rounds 7–9 — 10/3. The single most likely window in bet365’s round groups, and consistent with a fight that takes time to break down. Both are opinions, not guarantees — Wardley has already shown he can turn this fight on one punch.
Also on the Card
Louie O’Doherty and Mikey Gomez Jr contest the British and Commonwealth lightweight titles, and two-time Olympic champion Bakhodir Jalolov meets Solomon Dacres in a second heavyweight bout of interest. Undercard running orders can change on the night.
Betting Sensibly on Fight Night
Boxing markets go far beyond who wins — method, round, knockdowns and totals — and it’s easy to end up with several bets on the same fight. Decide your total stake in advance, remember that a single punch can change any boxing market, and never chase losses. Deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion tools are available at responsiblegambling.bet365.com, and GAMSTOP lets you self-exclude from all UK licensed operators for free.
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