Aston Villa boasts the strongest home record in the Premier League this season, while Newcastle has experienced a downturn, losing six of their last seven league matches. Interestingly, it’s been 11 years since an away side clinched victory in fixtures between these two teams.
Villa’s Formidable Home Strength Aston Villa’s unexpected push for the title largely hinges on their exceptional performance at home. This season, they’ve clinched victory in nine out of ten home league games, drawing just once against Sheffield United. Under Unai Emery’s stewardship, Villa has won 16 of their last 17 league matches at Villa Park, averaging close to three goals per game.
In contrast, Newcastle’s recent form has been less than stellar, with a 5-1 win over Villa earlier in the season now seeming like a distant memory. Despite their struggles, the Magpies have shown they can still find the back of the net, scoring two or more goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions. However, Villa’s defence has been permeable at home, with only two clean sheets in their last nine league games at Villa Park.
Home Side Dominance in Recent Meetings The last three encounters between Villa and Newcastle have been high-scoring affairs, with 13 goals in total and 12 of those scored by the home team. The trend heavily favours the home side in this fixture, as neither team has secured an away win since Newcastle’s 2-1 victory at Villa Park back in September 2013, a streak spanning 16 matches.
Given Villa’s current home form, it’s likely this pattern will persist. The hosts could replicate the three goals they netted in last season’s corresponding fixture, but with Newcastle’s attacking potential, a 3-1 victory for Villa seems a plausible prediction.
Douglas Luiz – Villa’s Key Player Douglas Luiz has been instrumental in Villa’s Premier League campaign, featuring in 20 of their 21 matches and scoring six goals. Only Ollie Watkins has netted more for the Villans this season. Luiz’s latest goal came in the 3-2 win over Burnley on December 30th. As the team’s regular penalty taker, he’s always a threat to score, especially in what is expected to be an attacking game on Tuesday. Luiz stepping up to the spot could well be a decisive moment in the match.
Betting Tip – Villa win with the home advantage and BTTS at 5/2
