Arsenal vs Chelsea Predictions

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EFL Cup Semi-Final (Second Leg) | Tuesday 1 February 2026 | Kick-off: 20:00 GMT

Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates with a place at Wembley on the line, as the London rivals meet for the decisive second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final.

After a frantic first encounter, the tie remains delicately balanced, but the conditions are now set for a more controlled — yet still decisive — night of football. Arsenal’s strong home record contrasts with Chelsea’s tendency to leave gaps on their travels, creating an intriguing tactical battle.

Match Breakdown

Arsenal have been notably efficient at the Emirates this season, particularly in cup competitions. They’ve won seven of their last eight home matches across all competitions, conceding just once in their last four on home soil.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have improved offensively but remain inconsistent defensively. While the Blues have found the net regularly, they’ve struggled to manage games away from Stamford Bridge, often conceding first and chasing matches late on.

With the aggregate score tight, Arsenal are unlikely to overcommit early — but Chelsea’s need to force the issue should gradually stretch the game as the night progresses.

Arsenal vs Chelsea Betting Tips

Arsenal Draw No Bet

Odds: 8/11

This market offers cover against a draw while still siding with the stronger home team. Arsenal’s ability to control possession and tempo at the Emirates gives them a clear edge, especially against a Chelsea side that has dropped points in similar away situations this season.

Under 4.5 Match Goals

Odds: 4/7

While goals are expected, knockout second legs often bring more structure than chaos. Arsenal are likely to prioritise control, and Chelsea cannot afford reckless defending. Under 4.5 goals has landed in 12 of Arsenal’s last 14 home matches, making this a sensible line.

Arsenal To Score First

Odds: 4/6

The Gunners have opened the scoring in six of their last seven home fixtures, while Chelsea have conceded first in four of their last five away games. A strong start from the hosts could shape the entire tie.

Tactical Angle

Expect Arsenal to dominate territory and possession, probing patiently rather than forcing early breakthroughs. Chelsea will likely look to transition quickly, but if they concede first, the tie could swing decisively in the hosts’ favour.

This feels less like a shootout and more like a controlled cup performance from a side comfortable in knockout football.