Are the Odds Underrating Aston Villa and Real Betis Ahead of Champions League Matchday 4?
Halfway through the league phase, the table and the betting markets don’t always agree. We’ve turned bet365’s Matchday 4 prices into implied probabilities to see how much weight the market gives to what we’ve seen so far.
| When | Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November 2026 |
|---|---|
| English clubs so far | Liverpool 9 pts, Aston Villa 9, Arsenal 7, Man City 6, Man United 3 |
| Closest market | Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich: 31/20 v 29/20 |
| Biggest English outsider | Aston Villa, 7/1 at Barcelona |
| Tuesday promotion | bet365 Money Back in Free Bets on 8pm UCL matches (T&Cs apply) |
Opt-in, qualifying bet types, minimum odds and a maximum refund apply. Applies to Champions League matches kicking off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 November only. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits, are not withdrawable and expire if not used. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. #AD
Five sides have won all three league-phase games: PSG, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Real Betis. The market makes three of them favourites this week and two of them outsiders. Three games is a small sample, but it’s fair to ask whether reputation is doing too much work in Villa’s and Betis’s prices.
What are the Matchday 4 prices actually saying?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds and you get the chance a bookmaker is assigning to each outcome. Across these fixtures the three outcomes add up to between 105% and 107%. The extra over 100% is the bookmaker’s margin, and it’s worth keeping in mind when you judge whether a price is good value.
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético v BayernTue 20:00 · Money Back game | 31/2039% | 3/125% | 29/2041% |
| Barcelona v Aston VillaTue 20:00 · Money Back game | 1/480% | 13/213% | 7/112.5% |
| Man United v RomaTue 20:00 · Money Back game | 5/444% | 3/125% | 7/436% |
| Villarreal v PSGTue 20:00 · Money Back game | 4/120% | 7/222% | 4/764% |
| AEK Athens v Real MadridWed 17:45 | 8/111% | 6/114% | 1/480% |
| Fenerbahçe v LiverpoolWed 17:45 | 17/419% | 7/222% | 8/1565% |
| Dortmund v Real BetisWed 20:00 | 7/1059% | 10/323% | 10/323% |
| RB Leipzig v Man CityWed 20:00 | 4/120% | 7/222% | 4/764% |
| Slavia Prague v ArsenalWed 20:00 | 9/110% | 11/215% | 1/480% |
Times are UK. Implied probabilities are rounded, with the bookmaker margin left in. Highlighted rows are our selections. Odds may change, so always check the current price before placing a bet. Full markets are on bet365’s Champions League hub. #AD · 18+
Is 7/1 fair for Aston Villa at Barcelona?
Villa have won all three, 3-2 at Club Brugge, 6-0 against Fenerbahçe and 3-1 against Viking, scoring 12 goals along the way. Barcelona have six points, and their last game was a 4-2 defeat in Paris. The market still makes Barça 80% likely to win and Villa just 12.5%.
Home advantage at this level is real, and Barcelona’s squad is deeper. But Villa’s results suggest this could be closer than the prices imply. Even if you’d rather not back an outsider, that’s the main thing to take from this market.
Why is Atlético v Bayern priced as a coin-flip?
Only two percentage points separate them, which makes it the closest fixture of the round. Bayern opened with a 5-0 win over Bodø/Glimt but have drawn their last two, 3-3 at Viking and 2-2 at home to Arsenal. Atlético have four points after losing at Anfield, beating Man United and drawing 1-1 in Stuttgart.
Two well-matched sides who have both been drawing lately is the kind of game where the draw at 3/1 is worth considering.
How much is riding on Man United v Roma?
United beat Sabah 4-0 in their opener, then lost to Atlético (2-0) and Como (4-1). Roma have four points. The market makes United slight favourites at 44%, which is about what you’d expect from home advantage between two sides in the middle of the table.
Only the top eight go straight through to the last 16, and the sides from ninth to 24th go into a play-off. A defeat wouldn’t knock United out, but three losses in a row would leave them needing plenty from the final four rounds.
Can Real Betis’ perfect start survive Dortmund?
Betis have quietly won all three: 3-2 at Lille, 3-2 at home to Porto and 1-0 against Feyenoord. Dortmund have six points, including a 1-0 defeat at Bodø/Glimt, and Serhou Guirassy has four goals. bet365 give Betis a 23% chance, the same as the draw. Home advantage and Dortmund’s goal threat explain much of that, but it’s a modest rating for a side with a perfect record.
How short is too short for Arsenal, Liverpool and City?
Arsenal are 1/4 (80%) in Prague against a Slavia side with one point. Liverpool, who have won all three, are 8/15 (65%) in Istanbul. City are 4/7 (64%) in Leipzig. All three prices make sense on form. But short odds reflect likelihood, not certainty, and they pay back little for the risk. Putting several of them in an accumulator multiplies the chances that one lets you down.
How does the Money Back offer actually work?
The principle is simple, but the detail is in bet365’s terms, so read them before you bet.
- Check the fixture. Only Champions League matches kicking off at 8pm UK time on Tuesday 3 November qualify. The 5.45pm games and Wednesday’s games don’t.
- Opt in and place a qualifying bet on an eligible market, at or above the minimum odds in the terms.
- If the bet loses, bet365 refunds your stake as Free Bets, up to the maximum refund stated in the terms.
- Use the Free Bets within the time limit. Returns exclude the Free Bet stake: a £10 Free Bet at 2/1 returns £20, not £30.
Are the outright markets starting to shift?
bet365 has Barcelona and PSG as joint 7/2 favourites to win the competition, which works out at about 22% each. Arsenal (11/2, 15%) are the shortest English club. City are 10/1 (9%) and Liverpool 20/1 (5%), even though Liverpool have the better record so far. In the Nationality of Winner market, Spain is 6/4 (40%) and England 15/8 (35%). The top scorer market has Erling Haaland and Harry Kane as 4/1 joint favourites, with Kylian Mbappé at 11/2.
| To Win Outright | Barcelona 7/2, PSG 7/2, Arsenal 11/2, Bayern 6/1, Real Madrid 8/1, Man City 10/1, Liverpool 20/1, Man United 50/1 |
|---|---|
| To Reach the Final | Barcelona 9/4, PSG 9/4, Arsenal 11/4, Bayern 10/3, Real Madrid 7/2, Man City 9/2, Liverpool 9/1 |
| Top Goalscorer | Haaland 4/1, Kane 4/1, Mbappé 11/2, Dembélé 20/1, Guirassy 20/1 |
| Nationality of Winner | Spain 6/4, England 15/8, France 10/3, Germany 11/2 |
Selected bet365 prices as supplied on 2 November 2026. Implied probabilities rounded, margin included. #AD · 18+
Two prices that look a little generous
The draw in Madrid is the most natural outcome in the closest game of the round. Betis is the speculative one: three wins from three, but only a 23% chance in the market, so keep the stake small. Both are opinions, not guarantees, and neither is a reason to stake more than you planned.
Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. 18+. BeGambleAware.org. #AD
Matchday 4: your questions answered
Which games qualify for bet365’s Tuesday Money Back offer?
Champions League matches kicking off at 8pm UK time on Tuesday 3 November: Atlético v Bayern, Barcelona v Aston Villa, Man United v Roma, Villarreal v PSG, Feyenoord v Inter, Bodø/Glimt v Lille and LASK v Slovan Bratislava. Check bet365’s terms for the qualifying bet types and maximum refund.
Is the refund paid as cash?
No. Refunds are paid as Free Bets (Bet Credits), which aren’t withdrawable and expire if not used. Winnings from Free Bets don’t include the Free Bet stake.
What does implied probability mean?
It’s the chance of an outcome that a price suggests. Convert the odds to decimal and divide 1 by that number: 3/1 is 4.0 in decimal, so 1 ÷ 4.0 = 25%.
Why do the percentages add up to more than 100%?
That extra is the bookmaker’s margin. On these fixtures it’s around 5% to 7%, so the market’s true view of each outcome is slightly lower than the figures shown.
Safer gambling
Two nights and eighteen games, plus a money-back offer, can make it feel like there’s always another bet worth placing. Decide your total stake for the week in advance, treat each bet on its own merits, and never chase losses. Gambling should be entertainment, never a way to make money.
If gambling is affecting you or someone close to you, free confidential support is available 24/7 from the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. bet365’s deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion tools are at responsiblegambling.bet365.com.
#AD · Advertising & affiliate disclosure: MyKnowledgeTips may receive commission from bet365 when you open an account through links on this page. Commission does not influence our analysis or selections. 18+ only. Odds and offer details were correct when supplied on 2 November 2026 and may change; always read the full terms on bet365 before taking part. BeGambleAware.org.