EFL 2026/27 Market Analysis: Championship, League One & League Two Outrights
With the 2026/27 EFL season almost underway, the outright markets across the Championship, League One and League Two are settling into shape. Below, we break down the full pricing structure — outright winner, promotion and relegation — for all 72 clubs across the three divisions, and set it against bet365 EFL Expert Gab Sutton’s club-by-club assessments to see where the market and the model diverge.
Championship
The market has West Ham United as clear favourites at 7/4 following their relegation from the Premier League, with Wolverhampton Wanderers (11/2) the next-shortest price. Middlesbrough (9/1) and Burnley (11/1) make up the rest of the leading group, while Birmingham City and Sheffield United sit at 16/1 alongside Southampton and Norwich City, both quoted at 14/1.
| Team | Outright Price | To Be Promoted | To Be Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City | 16/1 | 4/1 | 66/1 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 66/1 | 14/1 | 9/2 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 100/1 | 20/1 | 11/10 |
| Bristol City | 40/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 |
| Burnley | 11/1 | 3/1 | 66/1 |
| Cardiff City | 80/1 | 18/1 | 5/4 |
| Charlton Athletic | 100/1 | 25/1 | 11/8 |
| Derby County | 33/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| Lincoln City | 150/1 | 33/1 | 8/11 |
| Middlesbrough | 9/1 | 5/2 | 66/1 |
| Millwall | 28/1 | 7/1 | 25/1 |
| Norwich City | 14/1 | 11/2 | 40/1 |
| Portsmouth | 80/1 | 14/1 | 9/2 |
| Preston North End | 100/1 | 20/1 | 5/2 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 66/1 | 18/1 | 6/1 |
| Sheffield United | 16/1 | 5/1 | 20/1 |
| Southampton | 14/1 | 4/1 | 50/1 |
| Stoke City | 33/1 | 8/1 | 20/1 |
| Swansea City | 50/1 | 14/1 | 7/1 |
| Watford | 66/1 | 14/1 | 6/1 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 40/1 | 9/1 | 14/1 |
| West Ham United | 7/4 | 1/2 | 100/1 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 11/2 | 13/8 | 100/1 |
| Wrexham | 22/1 | 11/2 | 25/1 |
The promotion market mirrors the outright pricing almost exactly: West Ham (1/2) and Wolves (13/8) lead, with Middlesbrough (5/2) next. At the foot of the table, newly-promoted Lincoln City are the shortest-priced relegation candidates at 8/11, with Bolton Wanderers (11/10), Cardiff City (5/4) and Charlton Athletic (11/8) also prominent in that market.
Sutton’s assessment departs sharply from the market. He rates Southampton the strongest side in the division, pointing to 47 points from an unbeaten 19-game run under Tonda Eckert as the key data point — despite the Saints being priced fifth-favourite at 14/1. Norwich City (also 14/1), who returned 56 points from their final 31 games under Philippe Clement, are his second pick, ahead of market leaders West Ham United, whom he describes as “the common neutral title pick” but flags for squad-retention risk in third.
“The issues have almost worked in their favour politically: now, the dynamics are a little less Southampton fans against Sport Republic, and more Southampton against the world,” said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News.
At the bottom, Sutton’s model breaks from the market entirely: his top relegation pick is Blackburn Rovers (9/2), some way off the market’s shortest prices, on the back of what he terms minimal recruitment and “structural neglect.” Portsmouth (9/2) and Preston North End (5/2) complete his bottom three.
“Squad concerns mean a season of struggle looks in the offing,”
said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News of Blackburn Rovers.
Gab Sutton’s full Championship 1-24 predictions can be read here.
Full market pricing is available on the bet365 Championship hub.
League One
Leicester City are the standout market leaders at 9/4 following relegation from the Championship — a considerably shorter price than anything else in the division. Sheffield Wednesday (6/1) is next, ahead of Luton Town (7/1) and Plymouth Argyle (11/1).
| Team | Outright Price | To Be Promoted | To Be Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | 100/1 | 20/1 | 11/10 |
| Barnsley | 40/1 | 9/1 | 4/1 |
| Blackpool | 25/1 | 6/1 | 7/1 |
| Bradford City | 20/1 | 5/1 | 10/1 |
| Bromley | 150/1 | 33/1 | 11/10 |
| Burton Albion | 80/1 | 14/1 | 11/8 |
| Cambridge United | 66/1 | 16/1 | 7/4 |
| Doncaster Rovers | 40/1 | 10/1 | 7/2 |
| Huddersfield Town | 14/1 | 9/2 | 14/1 |
| Leicester City | 9/4 | 8/11 | 33/1 |
| Leyton Orient | 50/1 | 14/1 | 3/1 |
| Luton Town | 7/1 | 5/2 | 28/1 |
| Mansfield Town | 40/1 | 10/1 | 4/1 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 16/1 | 5/1 | 12/1 |
| Notts County | 50/1 | 10/1 | 11/4 |
| Oxford United | 25/1 | 13/2 | 7/2 |
| Peterborough United | 50/1 | 12/1 | 3/1 |
| Plymouth Argyle | 11/1 | 4/1 | 18/1 |
| Reading | 28/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 6/1 | 2/1 | 28/1 |
| Stevenage | 40/1 | 10/1 | 7/2 |
| Stockport County | 20/1 | 9/2 | 10/1 |
| Wigan Athletic | 33/1 | 9/1 | 9/2 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 20/1 | 6/1 | 8/1 |
Leicester (8/11) and Plymouth (4/1) also head the promotion market. At the other end, Bromley and AFC Wimbledon (both 11/10) are priced as the most likely to go down, with Burton Albion (11/8) close behind.
Sutton’s model does not back the market leader. He has Luton Town winning the division outright, citing “a whopping 26 points from their final 10 games” following an EFL Trophy triumph in March as a strong late-season signal. Plymouth Argyle — who took more points than anyone bar the top two from mid-November (60 from 31 games) — are his second pick, with market favourites Leicester City pushed down to third amid stated concerns over culture and defensive stability under Russell Martin.
“Town got that winning feeling back, with their EFL Trophy success in March catalysing a closing return of a whopping 26 points from their final 10 games,” said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News of Luton Town.
On relegation, Sutton’s picks track the market closely: newly-promoted Bromley (11/10) and Burton Albion (11/8), the latter cited for ongoing financial pressure and squad instability.
“[Bromley face] a bridge too far stepping up from League Two,”
said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News.
Gab Sutton’s full League One 1-24 predictions can be read here.
Full market pricing is available on the bet365 League One hub.
League Two
Salford City price up as favourites for League Two at 4/1, with Bristol Rovers (8/1) and Barnet (9/1) the next-shortest prices, ahead of Port Vale (12/1).
| Team | Outright Price | To Be Promoted | To Be Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington Stanley | 66/1 | 16/1 | 7/2 |
| Barnet | 9/1 | 2/1 | 40/1 |
| Bristol Rovers | 8/1 | 15/8 | 50/1 |
| Cheltenham Town | 66/1 | 16/1 | 10/3 |
| Chesterfield | 14/1 | 5/2 | 25/1 |
| Colchester United | 20/1 | 5/1 | 14/1 |
| Crawley Town | 50/1 | 14/1 | 9/2 |
| Crewe Alexandra | 25/1 | 6/1 | 12/1 |
| Exeter City | 33/1 | 8/1 | 11/2 |
| Fleetwood Town | 40/1 | 10/1 | 11/2 |
| Gillingham | 20/1 | 5/1 | 16/1 |
| Grimsby Town | 14/1 | 5/2 | 25/1 |
| Newport County | 150/1 | 25/1 | 2/1 |
| Northampton Town | 25/1 | 6/1 | 14/1 |
| Oldham Athletic | 18/1 | 4/1 | 16/1 |
| Port Vale | 12/1 | 9/4 | 25/1 |
| Rochdale | 33/1 | 13/2 | 7/1 |
| Rotherham United | 16/1 | 3/1 | 9/1 |
| Salford City | 4/1 | 10/11 | 100/1 |
| Shrewsbury Town | 50/1 | 11/1 | 11/2 |
| Swindon Town | 20/1 | 5/1 | 16/1 |
| Tranmere Rovers | 50/1 | 10/1 | 11/2 |
| Walsall | 20/1 | 5/1 | 14/1 |
| York City | 14/1 | 5/2 | 25/1 |
Salford (10/11) and Bristol Rovers (15/8) also lead the promotion market. Newport County are priced as overwhelming relegation favourites at 2/1, with Accrington Stanley (7/2) the next-shortest.
The clearest market/model gap in this preview: Sutton’s outright pick is Grimsby Town at 14/1 — more than three times the price of market leaders Salford — on the strength of what he calls one of the best-run clubs in English football. Bristol Rovers (8/1) and Barnet (9/1) also outrank the market favourites on his card, with Salford City dropping to fourth amid flagged defensive concerns under new head coach Peter Cklamovski.
“One of the best run clubs in English football,” said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News of Grimsby Town.
Sutton’s relegation picks align with the market almost exactly: Newport County (2/1), who have posted a lower points total than the previous campaign in each of the last five seasons, alongside Accrington Stanley (7/2) and Crawley Town (9/2).
“Newport County have finished with a lower points total than in the previous campaign in each of the last five seasons,”
said EFL Expert Gab Sutton courtesy of bet365 News.
Gab Sutton’s full League Two 1-24 predictions can be read here.
Full market pricing is available on the bet365 League Two hub.
Where the Model Disagrees With the Market
The pattern across all three divisions is consistent: bet365’s EFL Expert diverges most from the market at the top end, backing Southampton, Luton Town and Grimsby Town over shorter-priced favourites West Ham United, Leicester City and Salford City. At the bottom of the table, the model and the market are far more closely aligned in League One and League Two, with the Championship’s Blackburn Rovers call standing out as the one genuine outlier on the relegation side.
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